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In this exercise, you will compare and contrast two impact scenarios. Identify which impact scenario would be important to the judge in terms of degree of severity, degree of magnitude, probability, reversibility, timeframe, and moral principle. Not all terms will apply in all cases.
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Example:
Scenario A: The plan/thesis is guaranteed to cause a serious economic catastrophe that will decrease the quality of life of millions of people.
Scenario B: The status quo will likely allow disease to run rampant through poor communities, leading to thousands of deaths over the next half century.
Scenario A is worse in terms of degree of magnitude (millions effected versus thousands), probability (guaranteed versus likely), and timeframe (immediate versus over the next half century). Scenario B is worse in terms of severity (death versus quality of life), reversibility (death isn’t reversible but economic downturn is), and moral principle (the deaths will disproportionately effect the poor).
Exercise 1
a. If we don’t stop global warming, rising sea levels will drown the cultures of native peoples living in the South Pacific like those on the islands of Micronesia.
b.The plan to stop global warming will cause an immediate economic catastrophe which will only hinder development in the poorest parts of the world.
Exercise 2
a. Our plan will, without a doubt, eradicate a disease that has killed millions of people and will surely kill millions more.
b. The plan will trigger an intense, violent confrontation between two nuclear-armed states. There is at least a possibility of a nuclear conflict between the two, which could cause human extinction.
Exercise 3
a. Our plan will stop torture, a heinous crime against humanity.
b. The plan, if implemented, could potentially increase the risk of a major terrorist attack within our borders.
Exercise 4
a. Implementation of the plan will cause the extinction of several highly intelligent mammal species. This could harm humans in the long run by decreasing biodiversity.
b. The plan will substantially reduce the amount of cocaine production in South America, decreasing the drug problem around the world. This will save lives and improve quality of life.
Exercise 5
a. Implementation of the plan will trigger an arms race between countries in the region, which could lead to a war or, potentially, a genocidal campaign against the ethnic minority.
b. The plan will guarantee an immediate improvement in the economy which will raise the quality of life for all people in the region.
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